Prediksi Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Tuban Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series

Sri Wahyuningsih; Retno Wardhani

doi:10.30736/informatika.v10i1.1383

Prediksi Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Tuban Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series

Authors

Sri Wahyuningsih Universitas Islam Lamongan
Retno Wardhani Universitas Islam Lamongan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30736/informatika.v10i1.1383

Keywords:

Curah Hujan, Prediksi, Fuzzy Time Series, Mean Absolute Percentage Eror, Kabupaten Tuban, Perubahan Iklim

Abstract

Curah hujan adalah faktor penting dalam sektor pertanian dan pengelolaan sumber daya alam, terutama di Kabupaten Tuban. Memperkirakan curah hujan dengan akurat sangat penting untuk perencanaan dan pengambilan keputusan yang efektif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model prediksi curah hujan di Kabupaten Tuban menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series. Penelitian ini mencakup beberapa tahapan, yaitu studi literatur, analisis kebutuhan sistem, desain, implementasi, serta pengujian dan evaluasi. Data curah hujan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berasal dari Stasiun Kabupaten Tuban dengan 11 jumlah data pada tahun 2023. Metode Fuzzy Time Series dipilih karena kemampuannya dalam menangani ketidakpastian dan kompleksitas Data Time Series. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series efektif dalam memprediksi curah hujan, dengan tingkat kesalahan yang rendah dan hasil prediksi yang dapat diandalkan. Hasil dari perhitungan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series dalam prediksi curah hujan di Kabupaten Tuban menghasilkan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Eror di setiap masing masing variabel curah hujan MAPE 55%, kelembapan rata rata MAPE 98%, kecepatan angin rata rata MAPE 71%, temperatur rata rata MAPE 98%. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi signifikan dalam perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan terkait prediksi cuaca menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series, serta memberikan manfaat praktis dalam meningkatkan ketangguhan dan ketahanan Kabupaten Tuban dalam menghadapi perubahan kondisi cuaca yang dinamis.

Downloads

References

D. S. N. Aliana and Y. Permanasari, "Prediksi Curah Hujan di Kota Bandung Menggunakan Model Logika Fuzzy Time Series," Jurnal Riset Matematika , pp. 65-72, 2021.

F. Normalita, W. Sri and N. N. Yuki, "PERAMALAN MENGUNAKAN FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN (STUDI KASUS: CURAH HUJAN KOTA SAMARINDA)," Statistika, pp. 52-61, 2016.

E. Habinuddin, "Penerapan Fuzzy Time Series Untuk Memprediksi Curah Hujan Kota Bandung,"

JURNAL DIGIT, pp. 115-122, 2022.

N. Fauziah, S. Wahyuningsih and Y. N. Nasution, "Peramalan Mengunakanuzzy Time Series Chen (Studi Kasus: Curah Hujan Kota Samarinda)," Statistika, pp. 52-61, 2016.

F. Akhmad, "Persamaan Regresi Prediksi Curah Hujan Bulanan Menggunakan Data Suhu dan Kelembapan Udara di Ternate," Statistika, pp. 7-16, 2013.

B. G. Daria, S. Imam and I. T. Sri, "Pengaruh Suhu, Kelembaban Dan Kecepatan Angin Air Conditioner (AC) Terhadap Jumlah Angka Kuman Udara Ruangan," Jurnal Analis Kesehatan, pp. 44-50, 2022.

D. Desmonda, Tursina and M. A. Irwansyah, "Prediksi Besaran Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series," Jurnal Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi, pp. 145-149, 2018.

W. M. Joshua and G. Pamor, "PERANCANGAN SISTEM MONITORING KECEPATAN ANGIN DAN TEMPRATURE UDARA BERBASIS INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT)," Sigma

Teknika, pp. 86-96, 2023.

M. Suhartanto, I. K. D. Nuryana and A. H. Mujianto, "Perancangan Sistem Informasi Prediksi Curah Hujan Pada Kabupaten Jombang Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series.," 2021.

Downloads

PlumX Metrics

Published

2025-03-29

How to Cite

Sri Wahyuningsih, & Wardhani, R. (2025). Prediksi Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Tuban Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series. Joutica, 10(1), 63–72. https://doi.org/10.30736/informatika.v10i1.1383

Download Citation

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): MARET

Section

editorial

License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Joutica : Journal of Informatic Unisla is licensed under an Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) license. You are free to:

Share copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. This license is acceptable for Free Cultural Works.

The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

Attribution You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
Share Alike If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
No additional restrictions You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.

Copyright

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under an Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).