Behavioral choice analysis of student transit transition towards subsidized school bus services in Ponorogo Regency

M. Nur Fikri Indi Ariyanto; Dessy Angga Afrianti; Edy Kurniawan

doi:10.30736/cvl.v11i2.1759

Authors

M. Nur Fikri Indi Ariyanto Politeknik Transportasi Darat Indonesia-STTD
Dessy Angga Afrianti Politeknik Transportasi Darat Indonesia-STTD
Edy Kurniawan Politeknik Transportasi Darat Indonesia-STTD

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30736/cvl.v11i2.1759

Keywords:

Modal shift, School bus, Discrete choice, Stated preference, Logit model

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the modal shift probability utility toward the fully subsidized Smart School Bus in the integrated educational zone of Ponorogo Regency. A discrete choice experiment using an orthogonal fractional factorial design was conducted, drawing primary data from 346 homogeneous student respondents across SMPN 1, SMPN 5, and SMPN 6 Ponorogo. The purified dataset was analyzed using a binary logit difference model incorporating operational attributes alongside latent socio-demographic covariates. The calibrated utility function indicates that out-of-vehicle wait time and in-vehicle travel time act as significant disutilities, whereas active cabin air conditioning serves as a dominant behavioral pull factor. Econometric extraction reveals an empirical travel Value of Time of Rp466.67 per minute, an operational waiting Value of Time of Rp600.00 per minute, and a Value of Comfort of Rp11.013.33 per trip. These findings prove that qualitative cabin upgrades effectively buffer wait time penalties and reduce the need for aggressive parking surcharges. This study delivers a data-driven policy framework to transition underage motorcycle riders toward sustainable transit systems.

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